康臣药业实施员工期权激励和股票回购，维持买入评级，目标价11.95港元
发布日期：2019-01-07 浏览次数：11077次
作者：张皓渊 时间：2019年1月4日
摘要：
2016年推出员工股份奖励计划（目前剩余5500万股可行权股份，行权价港币4.01元）后，新的购股权计划于2019年推出。我们注意到行权条件基于当期KPI，分别于2020/2021/2022年可行权30%/30%/40%购股权数量。其中55%的购股权授予中、高层管理层和销售。我们相信激励计划可以帮助康臣吸引和保留关键人才，我们也相信康臣将执行更多的股份回购，基于其强劲运营现金流（18年底4.6亿港币）和净现金储备（18年底人民币7.6亿元，相当于其市值的20%）
截止昨日收盘，康臣药业市值较50亿港币低~30%（50亿市值为深港通市值要求）。我们认为管理层将努力维持深港通地位。公司目前19年PE为6x，香港其他可比公司为12x。我们基于SOTP估值体系，给予公司目标价11.95港币（2019年PE 16x），较当前价格有170%上涨空间。我们维持“买入”评级，公司的中成药产品线具有一定防御性且拥有强劲的资本回报潜力（在更多回购前，公司分红率预计达到5%）
What’s New:
Consun (1681 HK, BUY)) went up 6% yesterday on shares buyback and staff option plans amidst a sector-wide sell-off. It announced a 63mn share options plan (representing 6.3% of enlarged share base) to certain Directors and employees with exercise price at HK4.476 (6% higher than previous day closing price). It also initiated a share buyback program and repurchased 670,000 shares during last trading hour (accounted for 0.0766% of share base) at a total cost of HKD2.98mn (or HKD4.4/shr).
Our view
The new Share Options followed the last staff incentive program launched in 2016 (which now has 55mn exercisable shrs w/ exercise price of HKD4.01). We noted the vesting condition based on KPI during the period and exercisable amount for Apr 2020/21/22 are split into 30%/30%/40%, respectively, and 55% of options are granted to mid to high-level management and sales. We believe the incentive plan can help Consun in attracting and retaining its key talent.
We also believe Consun would conduct more share buyback, underpinned by its strong operating cash flow (HKD460mn at end-FY18E) and rich net cash (RMB760mn at end 2018E, 20% of current market cap).
As of yesterday’s close, Consun’s mkt cap is c.30% below HKD5bn (SZ-HK stock connection mkt cap requirement). We think Mgmt will aim to retain the SZ-HK stock connect status. Co. is now trading at 6x 2019E PER vs HK listed peers’ 12x, while we set SOTP-based TP at HK$11.95 (16x 2019E PER), with over 170% upside .
We maintain BUY rating as we think the stock offers a defensive TCM portfolio and strong capital return potential (we estimate 5% dividend yield before any further buy-back).
